The forecast of cancer prevalence in the regions and municipalities of Russia based on a multivariate model

The article considers the issue of the relationship between the cancer prevalence in some Russian regions and age composition along with a set of environmental and hygienic variables. The presence of the relationship between the prevalence of this pathology in the territory and the lag values of the variables are shown. The complex of factor explanatory variables contains an indicator of atmospheric air pollution in the settlements of the territory, a qualitative variable according to the degree of its technogenic pollution, the specific volume of polluted wastewater discharge, the concentration of benzo(a)pyrene, and the age composition. On this basis, an econometric model has been built that has a high statistical quality: the coefficient of determination is above 95 %, the approximation error is less than 3%. One of the factors was of the ordinal type; therefore, the result was a linear regression model with a variable structure containing two dummy variables. The model parameters were estimated by the least squares method using panel data with Russian regions for 2017-18. These data included observations on the populations of people with oncologic pathologies in the regions and factor variables. The presence of lags in the latter makes it possible to predict the number of people suffering from tumors of any localization with a planning horizon of 1 year. Such forecasts were carried out both at the level of regions and in the context of municipalities. Based on the resulting equation, one can make evidence-based managerial decisions aimed at canсer prevention in specific regions of Russia as well as to build agent-type simulation models.

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