Algorithmizing the management of project launch risks

Nowadays, increasing attention is paid to the issues of risk assessment and management, which are strongly associated with the globalization process of modern civilization. Based on the analysis and generalization of available statistical data on project risk management, it was found that less than half of the existing organizations carry out activities aimed at risk management (identification, monitoring, development and implementation of risk mitigation measures). The article considers a special case of solving the problem of risk management which consists in achieving the goal of the program at minimal cost taking into account restrictions on financing high-risk projects or on their number. It should be noted that in the existing documents on the regulation of project management processes, there is no methodological support for identifying, assessing and minimizing risks at all. In addition, there are currently no effective methods of comparative identification, analysis of interrelations and mutual influence of risk values and mechanisms for their minimization in the implementation of projects and project management. To account for the degree of project implementation risk, two objectives of forming the programs being implemented are proposed. The first objective implies identifying single-purpose projects for inclusion in the program that ensures the achievement of its goal at minimal cost with due regard for restrictions on high-risk project funding or their number. An original algorithm for solving the problem based on the branch-and-bound method with the proposed method for estimating a subset of solutions from below and an approximate heuristic algorithm using the “expense-effect” method are presented. The second objective was to reduce the cost of implementing the program by converting a number of low-risk projects to medium- and high-risk options. To solve this problem, the branch-and-bound method to obtain estimates of solutions by the network programming method was employed.

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