The article makes an attempt to identify the relationship between cancer prevalence in urban areas and several environmental factors, taking into account a demographic indicator. The regression dependence of the prevalence of oncologic diseases in the territories of urban districts of the Moscow region and several districts of the capital with the proportion of elderly residents and a number of sanitary and hygienic indicators of the territories has been established. The complex of factor explanatory variables included the indicator of atmospheric air pollution of the territory, two variables with the concentration of surface ozone and benz(a)pyrene on it, qualitative variables in terms of the level of its man-made pollution and the volumes of polluted water discharge, the proportion of elderly population. Daily cigarette smoking by adults is also taken into account. On this basis, a regression model with a variable structure is constructed, which has a determination coefficient of 98.5% and an approximation error below 2%. The model parameters were estimated using the least squares method based on data for 51 urban districts of the region and 5 districts of Moscow. The presence of lags in the factors makes it possible to make a forecast of the number of people suffering from tumors of any localization, in the municipal context and with a planning horizon of 1 year. Based on the created model, it is possible to plan primary prevention measures more effectively and allocate medical resources.
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