Methodology of system analysis of remote and hard-to-reach territories as complex systems

This article examines the development management of remote and hard-to-reach territories of the Russian Federation, characterized by low population density, harsh climatic conditions, and high levels of infrastructure vulnerability. It substantiates the need to shift from sectoral and reactive management to proactive management based on systems analysis and predictive modeling. A formal model of a remote territory and its representation as a weighted directed graph have been developed, enabling a quantitative description of material, energy, and information flows. Integral indices of vulnerability and adaptive potential are proposed, as well as a matrix for classifying territories into nine resilience zones. A six-stage systems analysis algorithm has been developed that integrates remote sensing data collection, graph modeling, index calculation, scenario modeling, and the generation of management recommendations with feedback. The proposed methodology provides a foundation for building intelligent decision support systems for managing remote and hard-to-reach territories. Future research prospects lie in the development of hybrid modeling methods for creating full-scale digital twins of Arctic municipalities. Testing the methodology on pilot projects will refine the index weightings and create industry-specific databases for scaling up the proposed approach.

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