Forecasting the cost of electricity and the state of insulation of electrical equipment

The paper deals with the application of the method of time series analysis to predict the cost of electricity and assess the state of insulation of power circuits of an electric locomotive. The proposed approach makes it possible, on a scientific basis, to plan the amount of funds allocated to pay for electricity, as well as to take timely measures aimed at restoring insulation and excluding the causes of fires that occur on locomotives. Time series analysis was carried out with the help of an application program that allows assessing the trend of changes in the indicators under consideration. A device for monitoring the state of insulation of power circuits of an electric locomotive is also proposed, in which the developed program for forecasting time series is implemented. Installing the device described in the work on the locomotive will allow timely assessing the current and predicted state of insulation, as well as taking timely measures to restore it. The urgency of the problem of diagnosing the state of insulation is due to the aging processes of fixed assets (machine tools and equipment) at industrial enterprises, which requires timely measures to restore the state of insulation of power electrical equipment. The application program is implemented in the MatLab package and is used to predict the cost of electricity. To expand the possibilities of using the application in other applications, the source code of the program was transformed into the code written in the high-level C language. The program obtained in this way is used in the PIC18F452 microcontroller to assess the state of the insulation of the power circuits of an electric locomotive.

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