Assessment of the risk of fire spreading to objects adjacent to construction sites

The article solves the problem of a quantitative assessment of the risk of fire spread to objects adjacent to construction sites, considering the likely dynamics of this process. In this case, the risk identified occurring with the probabilities of adverse events associated with the occurrence of initial and intermediate sources of fire and the creation of conditions for the spread of fire to adjacent territories. The mathematical apparatus of discrete Markov chains with twelve states are used to solve the problem, two of which are absorbing: ignition and non-ignition of objects adjacent to construction sites. The Markov chain is formalized as a system of algebraic equations, the solution of which gives the desired result. The peculiarity of the algorithm is that the calculation procedure depends on the possible scenario of the development of the fire propagation process. Both direct fires are taken into account when the fire spreads directly from the primary source to the ignition object and along the chain when the fire propagates sequentially from one place to another. The algorithm can find applications in municipal fire services.

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