Preliminary assessment of the probability of making the right decision in automated control systems

Every day a person is faced with many decisions made both in the professional sphere and in everyday life. Decision-making can take place directly or cause complex thoughts that require obtaining any additional information. The action can also be carried out in a limited amount with a minimum available time interval. In the professional sphere, for any manager as a decision-maker, it is essential to make a preliminary assessment of the probability of making the right decision. Evaluating a decision based on its consequences is usually not difficult. But it is much more complex to determine the correctness of a decision before it is implemented. However, management psychology suggests using well-defined signs of the right decision. The key ones are validity, timeliness, consistency, and concreteness. The conducted modeling of the decision-making process according to the given criteria for verifying the correctness of the conclusion indicates the adequacy of the description of the decision-making procedure and the possibility of its application, both in the assessment of a subjective decision and in automated decision-making in control systems. It is particularly worth paying attention to the limitations of applying the presented approach in Automated Control Systems for military purposes when developing proposals for the commander's decision when a preliminary assessment of all alternatives is required.

1. Akoff R. The Art of Problem solving: trans. from eng. M. Mir. 1982:224. (In Russ.)

2. Greshilov A.A. How to make the best decision in real conditions. M. Radio and Communication. 1991:320. (In Russ.)

3. Larichev O.I. Theory and methods of decision-making, as well as the Chronicle of events in Magical Countries: Textbook. Moscow: Logos. 2000:296. (In Russ.)

4. Larichev O.I. Science and the art of decision-making. M.: Nauka. 1979:200. (In Russ.)

5. Improving the management decision-making process. Decision-making criteria. Available at: https://vuzlit.ru/2175988/kriterii_prinyatiya_resheniy (accessed 14.06.2021). (In Russ.)

6. Urbanovich A.A. Psychology of management: A textbook. Mn.: Harvest. 2003:640. (In Russ.)

7. Orlov A.I. Organizational and economic modeling: theory of decision-making: Textbook. M.: KNORUS. 2010:568. (In Russ.)

8. Orlov A.I. Methods of making managerial decisions: Textbook. M.: KNORUS, 2018:286. (In Russ.)

9. Orlov A.I. Theory of decision-making: Textbook. Moscow: Exam. 2006:573. (In Russ.)

10. Smirnov E.A. Development of management decisions. Moscow: UNITY. 2002:271. (In Russ.)