Modeling of energy transition in a stress-strain geological environment for seismic risk assessment (Part 1)

The article considers the model for solving the problem of seismic risk quantitative correlation, calculated on the basis of modeling, with seismic impacts regulated in the Seismic building design code. The paper is the first part in a series of scientific publications on the subject. For the first time, it substantiates the criteria for selecting test territories, describes the methodology for verifying the adequacy of seismic risk assessment models, characterizes a probabilistic model of energy transitions in a stress-strain geological environment, and presents an approach to evaluating model parameters through the potential energy transformation indicators of the stress-strain geological environment. The content of the other two parts of the series is indicated. Armenia and neighboring states meet the criteria for choosing a region for practical testing of the model: high seismicity, the necessary information base and proven adequacy of the seismic risk model application at all deep levels of the earthquake epicenter locations. The method of the adequacy verification of the seismic risk assessment mathematical model, using the Student's criterion, is examined in detail. It is shown that when estimating the parameters of transitions between states of the model, described by the Kolmogorov equations, it is important to take into account both the influence of regional fields (anomalous gravitational field) and local fields (modern tectonic movements). Thus, a rationale is provided for employing two deterministic models – regional and local - for practical evaluation of stresses and displacements in the geological environment.

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