Model for assessing the compliance of building regulations with seismic risk values (part 3)

The article completes a series of three original publications, related to the modeling of seismic risks in the geological environment in design and construction of critical infrastructure facilities. The preparation of the series is aimed at achieving the goal of finding a quantitative correspondence of seismic risks, calculated according to mathematical models, with seismic impacts, regulated in the Seismic building design code (SP 14.13330.2018). For this purpose, the tasks are solved: in the first article the criteria for choosing test territories are justified, and the territory of Armenia and neighboring states is selected as a test region; in the second - by the example of the test area, an assessment of the probabilistic seismic risk was performed with the help of specially created mathematical models at the regional and local scale levels; in the third - mathematical models and software were developed to determine the compliance of the calculated seismic effects, regulated by the design code with the values of the probabilistic seismic risk, obtained using mathematical modeling. The final article concludes that the prospects for further research are associated with the construction of a new seismic intensity scale of possible earthquakes as a function of the calculated probabilistic seismic risk and the depth of the possible earthquake source, as well as the creation of a special normalization scale that enables to transfer the probabilistic seismic risk, calculated for any region, into intensity as a measure of shaking in points of a single macro seismic scale. The construction of similar scales is highly relevant for the calculated kinematic parameters, currently employed in the design code – peak acceleration, displacement velocity and the actual displacement of the ground.

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