Environmental factors and bad habits in models of the malignancy prevalence in the municipalities of Altai Krai and other regions

The article proposes a regression relationship that connects the prevalence of malignant neoplasm cases in Altai Krai with a complex of explanatory variables, some of which are taken with lags. This complex consists of the purchasing power of the average wages for employees in large and medium-sized organizations, the average volume of alcoholic beverages consumption (per adult capita with age 15+), the share of the elderly population and several dummy variables. The latter characterize the level of technogenic pollution of the municipality territory due to various reasons, as well as the quality of its highways. As a result, a regression model with the variable structure was built. The model has a coefficient of determination of about 98 % and a mean absolute percentage error of 1,2 %. Its parameters were estimated using the ordinary least squares method on panel data for 2018-2019. After assessing the accuracy of the model, it predicts the prevalence of cancer within the municipality with a planning horizon of one year. Such forecasts were made both for a number of urban districts and for municipal districts of Altai Krai, as well as for many districts of Orel and Kurgan Oblasts and a number of other regions in Russia. Additionally, forecasting is performed by means of a roughly similar model that has been created using regional data for 2017-2018. Based on these two models, it is possible to make science-based management decisions aimed at the primary prevention of general cancer morbidity in the population of the municipality and development of specific activities against the morbidity.

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