Mathematical model for estimating the probability of pedestrians crossing a street at some random location

This article presents one of the scientific results obtained by the author during the dissertation study. The problem of forming a convenient and safe pedestrian infrastructure, which is one of the urgent issues of the development of a modern city, is revealed. An analysis of Russian and foreign experience in organizing pedestrian infrastructure was carried out. It was revealed that in the Russian experience of organizing effective and safe pedestrian infrastructure, problems are often observed that occur in neighborhoods with any types of development, including such as the absence or irrational location of technical means of organizing traffic. A mathematical model has been developed that makes it possible to assess the probability of a pedestrian crossing a street in a particular place along the entire length. The parameters of the proposed model are defined. It is also proposed to apply the results of studies of human behavior in situations in which similar or the same psychoemotional motivators work, prompting the intersection of the street in a particular place, as well as to use dependencies that obviously correlate with the statistical dependencies necessary for conducting this study. The obtained results are proposed to be used in subsequent works in the development of a simulated model of traffic management, which allows assessing the congestion of the road network and subsequent optimization of transport and pedestrian flows in order to ensure the required road safety.

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