Optimization of resource management in a regional organizational system based on predictive analysis of long-term statistical information

The article considers the rationale for the optimization approach to resource provision management in a regional organizational system, which is distinguished by the procedures for integrating the results of predictive analysis of long-term statistical information into the decision-making process. The limitations of methods of expert selection of management actions based on the analysis of the dynamics of changes in the system's performance indicators and the possibility of overcoming this limitation through a formalized representation of the dependence of the integral effect function on additional resource provision, which makes it possible to move on to the search for management solutions through optimization modeling, are shown. The formation of optimization models for the distribution of resource provision in a regional organizational system is considered according to three components: population groups, territorial entities, and time periods. For the first two components, management decisions are determined by setting and solving multi-alternative optimization problems. They allow one to determine promising subsets of population groups and territorial entities for which the need for additional resources determined by experts will give the greatest effect in future periods. Since management decisions contain an expert component along with a formalized choice, they are preliminary in nature. The final formalized decision is achieved by distributing preliminary estimates over time intervals using an optimization model of dynamic programming. It is proposed to use the results of predictive analysis in the form of prognostic models reflecting the data of statistical indicators when forming target functions of optimization models, which allows integrating them into the decision-making process when managing the distribution of resource provision in a regional organizational system.

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