The article describes the developed mathematical model that allows, based on probabilistic methods, to dynamically assess the possibility of risks associated with resource shortages during construction projects. The proposed model makes it possible to monitor the reserves of scarce resources during construction projects, taking into account the stochastic nature of their replenishment and expenditure, which will allow for preventive measures aimed at maintaining existing reserves at the required level. The mathematical basis of the model is the theory of stationary Markov random processes and mass service. To implement the computational procedures for the model in practice, a methodology for performing calculations in the MS Excel spreadsheet is described. Calculation using the Excel calculation sheet involves entering the required resource for which inventory management is required for each time period, as well as the range of consumption of this resource during construction work. Next, the reduced intensity of resource consumption for several periods of project implementation is calculated, and the probabilities of resource availability as a function of time and the amount of delivered resource stock. Based on the calculation sheet, it is possible to estimate the probabilities of the resource available in stock for several time forecast periods in order to minimize possible risks associated with resource shortages. The final part of the work presents the results of testing the model in the activities of a construction organization, which showed that the use of the model will save from 5 to 10% of funds associated with the costs of suspending construction work due to a lack of necessary resources.
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Serebryakova Elena Anatolyevna
ORCID |
Voronezh, Russia
