Model of stochastic electrical load in the residential sector using the Weibull probability density function

The article proposes a method for simulating daily schedules of electrical loads in the residential sector based on convolution theory. The authors consider models using the Weibull probability density and the probability density of the normal distribution for shifts in the time of switching on household appliances. The goal is to select a model, the results of which most accurately correspond to the actual energy consumption in the residential sector. First, the energy consumption of household appliances is considered, and the results are compared without a shift and with a shift in the Weibull probability density. The correct variant of comparing the results of simulation modeling using the Weibull probability density with the results of modeling using the probability density of the normal distribution is determined. Next, the energy consumption of households in rural areas is considered, which takes into account the use of electric heating devices by the population. This makes it possible to carry out simulation modeling of energy consumption of settlements or their individual areas. The results are compared with real data on the energy consumption of the village. Based on the results of the work, a model was selected that most accurately reflects the real dynamics of changes in energy consumption levels in the residential sector. The reasons why the choice was made in favor of one of the models are described. Sufficient accuracy of simulation modeling using the selected model has been demonstrated.

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