ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE HEALTH LEVEL OF POPULATION IN THE RUSSIAN REGIONS

The article considers the economic and mathematical tools for solving the problem of integrated assessment and raising the level of public health in the region. The main health indicators serve as influencing factors. Linear models of integrated health indicators are constructed on available statistical data of the population of the Russian Federation and the Volgograd region from 2000 to 2014. The dynamic task of increasing the values of the public health integral index in the Volgograd Region was formulated and solved. Basic health indicators are used as phase variables of the dynamic model, taken into account in constructing the integral index. Investments in the fixed capital of the region by main types of economic activity are control variables. The information basis is the data of the social and economic situation of the region for the last 15 years. The presented dynamic model allows to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the health of the population of the region in the current and forecast period. Some scenarios of increasing integral health level of the region under different investment capital restrictions were considered and results were analyzed. The proposed approach can be used to evaluate various options of the region development strategy. In the article, the presented model of the integral indicator of population health support a complex estimation of the level of regional development in the current period and can be considered as a tool of decision-making support at the multivariate scenario analysis of regional development strategies in health.

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