CRITERIAL FUNCTION OF CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR LETHALITY PROBABILITY

Aortic stenosis is one of the most common degenerative valve diseases and takes the first place among indications for operation. The progressive aging of population results in increasing number of patients with severe aortic stenosis. Surgical aortic valve replacement is a procedure with acceptable long term and immediate outcomes. However, the number of elderly patients is increasing, and the use of surgical intervention is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation is a good alternative for patients with high risk. Exploration actuality made conditional upon development of confidence limits estimation method for lethality probability on clinical tests results. This method based on interpretation of this probability as binomial distribution parameter for lethality frequency. The application of Student’s distribution allows calculating crucial value for restricted tests number. At increasing of this number, the crucial value dependence from tests number disappears and confidence limits can be interpreted as objective characteristics of disease and treatment. In this situation upper limit is effectiveness criterion analyzed treatment – lower limit value corresponds to more effective treatment/ Lower limit characterizes inevitable lethality percent. Base application of this method is comparative analysis of treatment results for experimental and control groups intended for optimal treatment finding. Paper materials are of great practical value for clinical factors analysis

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