MODEL FOR FORECASTING FINANCIAL RESULTS OF ACTIVITY ON TRANSPORT AT CHANGE TARIFFS

It is expedient to carry out research and forecasting of interrelations between transport and other sectors of the economy using models that represent special modifications of known models of interbranch balance. One of the models of this kind is formed as follows. The basis is the so-called semi-dynamic model of the interbranch balance, which describes the distribution of production for current production consumption, the material provision of capital investments in the creation of productive assets and net final consumption. From the composition of net final consumption, the import and export of products, the costs of current transportation activities and the material provision of capital investments in passenger transport are allocated in connection with the need for a more detailed description of transport. The nomenclature of types of products included in the model includes the products of each mode of transport separately for the transport of goods and passengers, the types of industrial products directly consumed by transport in the processes of transportation and investment activities, as well as other types of products in the aggregate nomenclature. The equations of the balance of production and distribution of products form the first part of the model. Its second part is formed by the equations of the balance of incomes and expenses of enterprises and the equation of distribution of the balance profit of enterprises in the directions of its use. The third part of the general system is made up of equations relating productive investments with the required input of production capacities and the equations of the dynamics of production fixed assets and production capacities.

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