Mathematical and statistical fire incidence forecasting model for use in the EMERCOM system of Russia

Making and analysing fire incidence forecasts is the issue which is in the focus of the attention of the supervisory activity directorate of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters because it concerns safety of human life and, thus, the tasks of solving this problem, and therefore planning and optimization of unit personnel. At the same time, about 30% of the control measures total number, carried out by fire supervision authorities, pertained to scheduled inspections. This article demonstrates the correlation between fire dynamics forecasting and scheduled inspections and determines the magnitude of the lag or delay in conducting scheduled inspections in relation to the number of fires. The mathematical and statistical model is based on the example of statistical data on the fire incidence in the Nizhny Novgorod region and the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2020. To define and address this problem, the mathematical apparatus of time series theory was used, in particular, the method with distributed lags - the Almon technique. The findings allow us to conclude that mathematical models with distributed lags, performed by means of the Almon technique, can be employed to predict fire incidence in the EMERCOM of Russia system, as well as to schedule inspections of the state fire services of the EMERCOM of Russia and formulate proposals for optimizing the personnel of the EMERCOM units.

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