GEODYNAMIC RISKS AND OIL-GAS AREAS OF CYPRUS: VALUATION MODEL

The article deals with the issues of seismic hazard in Cyprus and the adjacent waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The purpose of the article is the analysis of geodynamic risks in this region, the construction of adequate models for their assessment, as well as the justification of indicators of geodynamic danger and the search for oil and gas basins. A probabilistic model describing the sequence of geodynamic states of the geological environment of the studied area and satisfying the conditions of independence, homogeneity and ordinariness of the event flows is constructed. Its description in the form of Kolmogorov differential equations is given. Based on the model, the equipotential distribution of geodynamic risk is obtained, which makes it possible to justify the zones of sufficiently safe construction on the island of Cyprus and the placement of offshore infrastructure on the coast. Another important applied aspect of model studies is the search for geodynamic indicators of seismic risk. One of such indicators is vortex structures formed by vectors of horizontal stresses in the Earth's lithosphere. The highest concentration of epicenters of earthquakes and the highest probability of geodynamic risk occur in the area where there is a mutual intersection of four vortex structures in the South-West coast of the island. An important aspect of geodynamic risk assessment is related to the task of searching for indicators of oil and gas fields. Using a digital model of the Earth's lithosphere, created by the authors, it is found that oil and gas fields are geographically located on the boundaries of the left-rotating vortex structure formed by specific physical characteristics of the lithosphere. This is confirmed by empirical data on the example of the territory of Cyprus and the adjacent waters of the Mediterranean Sea. It is concluded that in order to clarify the location of oil and gas zones, cartographic data on more detailed distributions of crustal movements, tectonic disturbances and anomalous gravitational field are needed.

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