Оценка риска распространения пожаров на объекты, прилегающие к строительным площадкам
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Научный журнал Моделирование, оптимизация и информационные технологииThe scientific journal Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology
Online media
issn 2310-6018

Assessment of the risk of fire spreading to objects adjacent to construction sites

Fursov I.   Kuprienko P.  

UDC УДК 681.3
DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2021.34.3.005

  • Abstract
  • List of references
  • About authors

The article solves the problem of a quantitative assessment of the risk of fire spread to objects adjacent to construction sites, considering the likely dynamics of this process. In this case, the risk identified occurring with the probabilities of adverse events associated with the occurrence of initial and intermediate sources of fire and the creation of conditions for the spread of fire to adjacent territories. The mathematical apparatus of discrete Markov chains with twelve states are used to solve the problem, two of which are absorbing: ignition and non-ignition of objects adjacent to construction sites. The Markov chain is formalized as a system of algebraic equations, the solution of which gives the desired result. The peculiarity of the algorithm is that the calculation procedure depends on the possible scenario of the development of the fire propagation process. Both direct fires are taken into account when the fire spreads directly from the primary source to the ignition object and along the chain when the fire propagates sequentially from one place to another. The algorithm can find applications in municipal fire services.

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Fursov Ilya

Email: cva57@yandex.ru

Voronezh State Technical University

Voronezh, Russia

Kuprienko Pavel
doctor of Technical Sciences associate Professor

Voronezh State Technical University

Voronezh, Russia

Keywords: fire safety, fire propagation risk, discrete Markov chain, risk calculation algorithm, fire development scenario

For citation: Fursov I. Kuprienko P. Assessment of the risk of fire spreading to objects adjacent to construction sites. Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology. 2021;9(3). Available from: https://moitvivt.ru/ru/journal/pdf?id=986 DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2021.34.3.005 (In Russ).


Full text in PDF

Received 11.07.2021

Revised 12.09.2021

Accepted 16.09.2021

Published 19.09.2021