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Научный журнал Моделирование, оптимизация и информационные технологииThe scientific journal Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology

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issn 2310-6018

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metadata of articles for the last 2 years

An intelligent clinical decision support system for predicting the outcome of an assisted reproductive technology protocol at various stages of its implementation

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1169

Sinotova S.L. Solodushkin S.I. Plaksina A.N. Makutina V.A.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.009

The article describes the logic of an intelligent clinical decision support system (CDSS), which is based on a set of machine learning models that allow predicting the outcome of an assisted reproductive technologies (ART) protocol at various stages of its implementation. To create all the prognostic models, data from the register of ART protocols, which enables tracing the influence of the woman's history and the course of the protocol on the health of the child from birth to three years of age, were used. The outcome of the ART protocol is expressed in the likelihood of pregnancy, the most common complications of its course, such as isthmic-cervical insufficiency, arterial hypertension, placenta previa, gestational diabetes mellitus, disturbances in the amount of amniotic fluid and premature rupture of the membranes, in a term and method of delivery, as well as in the state of health of the born child for three years. The impact of predicted pregnancy complications on the outcome of childbirth as well as the impact of predicted pregnancy complications, the date and method of delivery on the health of the born child, described in the health group and the predicted group of ICD-10 diagnoses, are taken into consideration. The CDSS is provided for in vitro fertilization protocols, including those using intracytoplasmic spermatozoa injection into the oocyte (IVF/ISKI) and cryotransfer. The CDSS contains 77 predictive models, of which 72 models are binary classifiers, 5 are regression models. Random Forest Algorithm was employed to create all machine learning models. The ROC-AUC value of the binary classifiers of the system is 0.936 95% CI [0.914; 0.958], the accuracy of binary classifiers is 0.897 95% CI [0.880; 0.915], F-test for regression models does not refute the model adequacy hypothesis. The application of such a system will make it possible to obtain an objective assessment drawing on a large amount of data, which is of particular interest for specialists in the field of ART, and to visually demonstrate to the clients of ART centers the main stages of the upcoming process.

Keywords: machine learning, clinical decision support system, assisted reproductive technologies, predictive models, software application, child health prediction

Test tasks analysis of fault-tolerant software system multiversion formation

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1167

Kovalev I.V. Kovalev D.I. Ambrosenko N.D. Borovinsky D.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.003

The relevance of the study is due to the modern requirements for the operational reliability of software systems for critical applications. The authors develop an approach based on modern information technology of highly reliable software system multiversion formation. The paper analyzes test tasks of fault-tolerant software system multiversion formation with the aid of ant colony algorithms including standard and modified algorithms. In this article, a software system is defined by a predefined set of software modules connected in a particular way and forming a transition graph with transition probabilities. Moreover, the execution of each module is multiversional, in other words, the module is comprised of several versions with each one characterized by the value of reliability and cost of execution. As a result, the set of versions, selected for execution in the module, determines its reliability and cost, and, owing to the presence of the program graph, we are able to calculate the reliability and cost of the entire software system. The conditions of the problem feature restrictions on the reliability and cost of the final solution. A predefined scheme of the software system was used in the analysis, taking into account the long-term mode of program functions implementation and the capacity to change program structure in the process of its implementation. It is shown that the employment of the modified algorithm provides an advantage not only in the quality of the objective function value, but also in the speed of improving this solution, which is especially important for practical purposes when implementing software systems in real time.

Keywords: software system, fault tolerance, ant colony algorithm, multiversion method, test task

System models of Vietnam fire service resources management

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1166

Minaev V.A. Ovsyanik A.I. Kieu T.A.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.007

The intensification of research related to solutions to the problems of fire service optimal management is aimed at systematic consideration of the territorial differences of fire risks, the targeted use of its diverse resources, providing an economical mode of their expenditure, based on the multidimensional classification of the fire situation, principles and models of the active systems theory. The article continues the development of these promising ideas with reference to personnel, logistical, financial and other resources of fire service. Insufficient coverage of these areas in systemic research hinders the development of effective methodological and technological solutions to purposefully reduce fire risks and damage from fires. Identification of promising areas in the field of fire risk modeling with due account for the impact of anti-fire service resource provision on them, as well as the construction of a system of practical models for optimal management of its resources in order to reduce the tension of the fire situation. The main methods employed are the optimal approximation of empirical data, methods of the active systems theory, multidimensional classification of objects, such as territorial clusters that characterize different fire conditions in the provinces of Vietnam. Drawing on theoretical and experimental studies, the dependences of the resource provision of various types (fire trucks, logistics, etc.) on the number of firefighters in various districts of Vietnam have been determined. Based on the findings, a methodology for the territorial-dynamic allocation of fire service resources was developed. The conclusion is made about its scientific and practical novelty in comparison with existing approaches. The results of the research show that by contrasting the existing administrative structure of Vietnam and the results of classifying its territories into homogeneous groups (clusters) according to the fire situation, it is possible to apply the calculations given in the article to a more efficient and focused management of fire service resources. Fire trucks in the administrative districts of Vietnam can be distributed optimally by projected values of firefighters in the country and projected number of fires in the districts. It is advisable to connect other resources of the fire service with the forecast calculations outlined above, utilizing either traditional normative estimates or new algorithms based on the development of model studies.

Keywords: vietnam, fire service, resources, modeling, optimal territorial allocation

Unification of automated systems for military purposes by means of special software implemented using microservice architecture

2022. T.10. № 3. id 1158

Malyshev V.A. Tolstykh A.V. Aleynikov S.A.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.38.3.010

In this paper, the authors propose a list of objectives that should be accomplished when unifying special software for automated military systems. Conclusions are drawn from the analysis of the functionality of automated workplaces of air force formation crew from the well-known software and hardware complexes deployed for operation at the headquarters and at the daily control point (command post) in the form of the requirements for special software. Based on the findings, the proposals to solve the tasks of automated military system unification by changing the architecture of building special software from monolithic to microservice were developed. A version of the general structure of the container-modular type special software, which enables the use of this software with any software and hardware complex deployed for the work of military formation officials, is considered. The configuration of special software is suggested. The basis is the primary module (container module) designed for the deployment (launch) of secondary modules and the organization of network exchange and storage of information inside it. The primary and secondary modules are microservices that can work independently of each other, being utilized by the operator autonomously to achieve various goals.

Keywords: automated system, software, unification, monolithic architecture, microservice architecture

Developing the requirements for secure information and telecommunications infrastructure of special-purpose communication networks

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1157

Bokova O.I. Kanavin S.V. Khokhlov N.S.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.029

In modern conditions, a well-established secure information and telecommunications infrastructure as a symbiosis of informatization, automation, communications and information security tools can play a significant role in the development of a digital society. A relevant task in the current situation is to formulate the requirements for a secure information and telecommunications infrastructure of a special-purpose communication network. The paper identifies the features of ensuring information security in the context of managing the protected information and telecommunications infrastructure of a special-purpose communication network. Based on the analysis of research papers devoted to this area of study, an architecture for managing the information security of a special-purpose communication network is suggested. The system for ensuring information security, protection and control is complex and it implements centralized management of information security tools, monitoring and analysis of possible threats to information security of a special-purpose communication network. An algorithm for managing information security means of a secure information and telecommunications infrastructure of a special-purpose communication network is proposed. With the aid of functionally oriented information processes, the possibility of managing a secure information and telecommunications infrastructure of a special-purpose communication network is considered. The article demonstrates the results of the main provisions of the optimal control of functionally oriented information processes application while facilitating the security of territorial segments of a special-purpose communication network, which are presented as a dependence of a special-purpose communication network effectiveness in the implementation of the information security threats detection. The relevance of the study is due to providing security at all life cycles of a special-purpose communication network. The materials of the article are of practical value for specialists in the field of information security of special-purpose communication networks.

Keywords: information security, secure information and telecommunications infrastructure, management of information security tools, special-purpose communication network security, adaptive subsystem of security and information protection, counteraction to information security threats

System classification of information security threats to the information and telecommunication network

2022. T.10. № 4. id 1156

Popov A.V. Choporov O.N. Preobrazhenskiy Y.P.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.39.4.008

The problem of cybersecurity protection has been in the focus of specialists’ attention for about 40 years since the advent of the Internet Protocol (English Internet Protocol, IP) as the standard ARPANET network protocol since 1982. Currently, the approaches and best practices of cybersecurity protection are known, which were taken as the starting point of this research. The analysis showed that at present the problem of ensuring information security of an information and telecommunications system by means of modern intellectual approaches still remains not fully scientifically solved, and ensuring information security of an information and telecommunications system (ITCS) based on the creation of a specialized structural element in the ITCS previously has not been the subject of a special comprehensive scientific study. Numerous annual studies on information security issues demonstrate that information security strategies that have been traditionally based on compliance with the regulatory and legal requirements and were limited only to the "perimeter defense" of computer networks, do not cope with the growing level of information security risks in this area. The paper presents a scientifically grounded structuring of the information security concepts and the description of the internal and external context of an organization’s activities as a single taxonomy necessary to specify the requirements for the center of network security intelligent control, which would help to obtain a scientific systematization and a set of complex hierarchical interconnected entity classifications (basic concepts of information security are "vulnerability", "information security threat", "network attack" and "information security incident").

Keywords: system classification, networks, telecommunications, security, threats

Functional model of the protected corporate information system

2022. T.10. № 4. id 1155

Popov A.V. Choporov O.N. Preobrazhenskiy Y.P.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.39.4.005

The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204, dated 07.05.2018, "On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation (RF) for the period until 2024” defines the direction of ensuring information security (IS) in the field of state and public security of the Russian Federation as "improving the security of the functioning of information infrastructure facilities with a view to ensuring sustainable interaction of state bodies, preventing foreign control over the functioning of such facilities, ensuring the integrity, stability and security of the unified telecommunication network of the Russian Federation as well as ensuring the security of information transmitted through it and processed in information systems on the territory of the Russian Federation." The paper proposes a mathematical model of telecommunication traffic based on a set of fractal parameters and its phase portrait, which helps to evaluate the presence and absence of network attacks more efficiently than solely by the values of the Hurst index and the correlation dimension. The model suggested in the paper includes a Markov model for protecting a corporate information system, which gives a great advantage in determining the type of information threat and its effective elimination. To test the efficiency of the model, a system of integral indicators is employed with consideration to the time spent by the system in all states. The model is suitable for all organizations using corporate information systems because it identifies only those threats that are dangerous to the enterprise system.

Keywords: information security, corporate system, algorithm, model, information threats

Algorithmization of visual-expert modeling process when optimizing organizational system development management using monitoring information

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1154

Lvovich A.I. Preobrazhenskiy A.P.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.010

The paper deals with the problem of increasing the efficiency of the decision-making process in the management of resource support for the development of an organizational system. It is shown that the focus on management based on the results of monitoring the effectiveness of the organizational system causes the necessity to use big data. In this case, the support for expert management decisions with the aid of the optimization approach does not allow one to exclude the choice of an unreasonable option for the distribution of resource support aimed at developing the system by improving the values of performance indicators that affect the achievement of established goals. To increase the validity level of management decisions, it is proposed to utilize the mechanisms of an expert’s visual-figurative intuition in reliance on the visualization of big data. At the same time, it is advisable to supplement the process of optimization modeling with visual-expert modeling. A structuring of the integrated process stages is given, which provides resource support for the achievement of goals in terms of the most significant performance indicators for the development of the organizational system. The suggested stages of the integrated process of visual-expert and optimization modeling are detailed in the form of a sequence of algorithmic operations that enable the expert to reasonably set the dimension and parameters of reductional optimization models as well as to choose a resource allocation option assisted by balance optimization.

Keywords: management, organizational systems, resource provision, optimization, data visualization, expert evaluation

The satellite network modeling in GPSS World

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1152

Ponomarev D.Y.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.006

The study regards the combined satellite network model, which is a network using different altitude orbits. The relevance of employing different altitudes is due to the necessity to provide different types of service, taking into account the expansion of the service area to higher latitudes. To implement this approach, satellites are applied both in geostationary and highly elliptical orbits. Owing to the considerable complexity of satellite network estimation and analysis at the stage of design and construction, various modeling methods are involved. At the same time, analytical modeling of these networks is associated with significant difficulties. In this article, simulation in GPSS World is utilized and the main objective is to develop the user request serving algorithm for combined satellite network simulation model and to evaluate probabilistic and temporal characteristics of the network, exploiting the designed algorithm. Software implementation of the algorithm has demonstrated GPSS World capabilities and made it possible to obtain results for the evaluation characteristics such as average delay time and loss probability. The findings can be used both in the analysis of existing technologies for satellite networks under review and in the design and development of new ones.

Keywords: combined satellite network, simulation modeling, service algorithm, loss probability, average delay time

Experimental study of the automatic troubleshooting system in the database

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1150

Sinyukov D.S. Potudinsky A.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.030

Modern applications are focused on cloud services to achieve better performance, geographic replication and lower cost of ownership. Following the modern concepts of cloud services, this study draws on rich telemetry data and displays the workload performed using the Azure SQL database. The main purpose of this research is the potential improvement both of service and customer assistance employing a controlled platform. The automatic database troubleshooting system is designed to detect problems in a relational cloud database and analyze appropriately the sources of problems in order to reduce the time and cost of manual search and solution of these problems. This system was implemented on top of the Microsoft Azure platform. It is based on scientific models of general and categorical statistical data, which were developed and constructed after a thorough examination of the collected telemetry data. The final root cause of each current issue in the Azure service is gathered after analyzing the results of the models by means of an expert system. The evaluation results show that the continuous enhancement of the infrastructure has reduced the processing time, approximately, by 2 times while the number of intervals has doubled, which can be considered an overall improvement of 4 times, approximately.

Keywords: controlled platform, cloud databases, telemetry data, expert system, search automation

Methods of constructing a dialog mode for solving polyadic automated control tasks in a natural-like language in military sets of automation tools

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1149

Morozov P.A. Krutalevich Y.A. Anoshin R.I. Belikov N.N.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.005

The continuous improvement of a potential enemy’s means of attacking from air or space leads to a sharp reduction in the available time for their destruction and makes relevant the increase in the efficiency of troop automated control, which, in turn, imposes more requirements for the speed of control body combat crews. Known approaches to lessening the working time of control body combat crews are either ineffective or incur significant financial costs. The aim of the research is to diminish the working time of control body combat calculation by reducing the time for solving polyadic automated control tasks in military automation sets of tools. To achieve the purpose of the study, a modification of the method for generating operational information by the combat calculation of the control body is proposed by presenting the necessary data when solving automated control tasks as a production-frame model. We also employed a set of subject, language and graphic models as an information resource, which allows us to take into account the predicate structure of the control body combat calculation request and the conceptual as well as graphical representation of display objects when solving polyadic automated control tasks in a dialogue mode in a natural-like language. The experimental studies on the software and hardware complex, conducted before, showed that the average value of control body combat calculation working time fell by 19.3% for all categories of participants in the experiment. It is suggested to implement this solution in the form of a software module within the framework of a high-level programming language C/C++ using the Qt library, which will enable it to be integrated into special software for a set of automation tools.

Keywords: set of automation tools, automated control tasks, dialog mode, operational information, air situation, natural-like language

Synthesis of neural network architecture for ship pattern recognition based on pre-training technology

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1148

Gulamov A.A. Konarev D.I.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.011

The relevance of the article is due to the information and communication support of navigation by monitoring river vessels using video surveillance cameras. The main goal is to recognize ships in images, for which the application of neural networks has potential. The aim of the paper is to study the performance indicators of vessel recognition by means of available pre-trained networks after their additional training for the assigned tasks and to select the most efficient network. The research considers various pre-trained neural networks. The input data for the networks are ship images. The training sample was collected manually and includes two independent DataSets with images of river vessels and many other objects apart from ships. The networks were built and further trained with the aid of Keras and TensorFlow machine learning libraries. The employment of pre-trained convolutional artificial neural networks for pattern recognition problems and the advantages of utilizing such networks over synthesizing a neural network from scratch are presented. The architecture of efficient pre-trained VGG16 neural network is described in detail. An experiment was conducted in additional training of available pre-trained convolutional neural networks for the assigned task. The efficiency of various pre-trained neural networks was evaluated in terms of the percentage of correct pattern recognition cases on the test set. The most efficient neural network for ship pattern recognition tasks has been selected. NASNetMobile and NASNetLarge networks have shown the maximum accuracy. However, the minimum image size that these networks can work with is larger than for other available networks and the great number of parameters in the convolutional layers of these networks causes a significant increase in retraining and operation time than for other available networks. Concurrently, VGG16 neural network with a small number of parameters and a short time for additional training has proven to be highly efficient which is why it is recommended for the purposes of ship pattern recognition.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, pre-trained networks, convolutional neural networks, keras, tensorFlow, google Colaboratory, VGG16, NASNetMobile, NASNetLarge

Algorithmization of repeated query optimization in cloud databases with the aid of computer training

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1147

Almusawi O. Kravets O.J.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.020

In cloud environments, hardware configuration, data usage, and workload distribution are constantly changing. These changes make it difficult for the query optimizer of the cloud database management system to choose the optimal query execution plan (QEP). In scientific literature, it was proposed to re-optimize the query during its execution for the purpose of optimizing it with a more accurate cost estimate. However, some of these optimizations cannot provide performance gains in terms of query response time or monetary costs, which are the two optimization goals for cloud databases, and may have a negative impact on performance due to overhead. This raises the question of how to determine when the optimization is efficient. The aim of the study is to develop a method of repeated query optimization that uses computer training. The key idea of the algorithm is to employ past query executions to learn how to predict the effectiveness of query re-optimization, and this is done in order to help the query optimizer avoid unnecessary re-optimization of queries for future ones. The method runs the query step-by-step, utilizing a computer training model, to predict whether re-optimization of the query will be useful after the stage is completed, and calls the query optimizer to automatically perform re-optimization. An experimental evaluation of the effectiveness is to be carried out.

Keywords: repeated query optimization, cloud databases, computer training, multi-stage query, automation of execution

Network-centric motion control algorithm for a group of mobile robots

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1146

Diane S. Iskhakov A.Y. Iskhakova A.O.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.026

When solving reconnaissance and tactical tasks, methods of mobile robots group application show high efficiency. Robotic groups, based on the network-centric system of control, are characterized by the superiority of intelligence systems over enemy intelligence systems, including the reliability, timeliness and accuracy of the extracted information. At the same time, planning the group trajectory that facilitates communications maintenance with the aim of transmitting control signals becomes a priority in the implementation of such secure systems. The paper proposes a scientific approach to handling the task of mobile robots motion planning under the conditions of providing mechanisms for secure interaction between the agents of a robotic system, using steganographic methods to hide control signals. Previously, the authors developed and tested methods and algorithms as well as software solutions for concealing control signals and the facts of their transmission within the process of intellectual interaction of a robotic systems group when they address a common problem, as well as verification of agents by a dynamic tuple of identification attributes. In the ongoing study, we put forward the software for trajectory planning of a heterogeneous multi-agent robotic system on the condition of maintaining communications to perform the transfer of control signals.

Keywords: information security, control systems in robotic devices, communications security, multi-agent robotic system, network-centric control

Modeling of information systems: review of textbooks

2022. T.10. № 3. id 1143

Erzhenin R.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.38.3.026

The article is devoted to the problem of training modern IT specialists. The study examines the content of educational publications related to information system modeling which are registered in the Unified Electronic Catalog of the Russian State Library (RSL) from 2000 to 2020. The analysis of educational publications sorted by theme was carried out according to the main bibliographic indicators including, among other things, the LBC code and the specification of the academic major. The results of the analysis were summary tabular data as well as graphical and schematic representations of the relationship of information system modeling subject to the scientific fields in which educational publications were prepared. Following on from the findings, conclusions were made regarding the quantitative, thematic and content aspect of educational publications, which made it possible to form a knowledge base of educational literature, determine the boundary and relationships of scientific areas with the subject of information system modeling. To assess the final result of the activity on the creation of service publications, it is recommended to use the principle of targeted causality. In order to improve the effectiveness of this activity, it is proposed to devise a special methodology for evaluating training models that can ultimately affect the quality of modeling educational activities and reduce the risks of developing semantic degradation. The knowledge obtained after reviewing educational publications can be used in science studies, development of new modern textbooks as well as for the purposes of improving curricula and discussing the approaches to developing IT education from the standpoint of interdisciplinarity and polydisciplinarity.

Keywords: IT education, IT specialist, IT personnel, scientific and educational environment, science studies, modeling methodology, training model

Locally one-dimensional method for the transfer equation of a continuous medium with distributed parameters on a network-like domain

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1141

Tran D.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.008

The paper considers a wide range of issues related to the solution of an initial-boundary value problem for a parabolic partial differential equation with a multidimensional space variable belonging to the Euclidean space and changing on a network-like domain. The mathematical model describing the process of transferring a continuous medium over a network carrier is determined by the formalism of the initial-boundary value problem. An idea that has become classical is further developed for the case when a network-like region is a directed bounded graph, i.e., a collection of a finite number of segments connected to each other by means of end points. The study employs classical approximations of evolutionary differential equations of the 2-nd order as well as non-classical approximations of differential relations illustrated by generalized Kirchhoff conditions at the branching points of a network-like region (nodal points of the region). When using difference approximations of the initial-boundary value problem operator, the approximation error and stability conditions for the difference scheme are established. The characteristic properties of the locally one-dimensional method and the sweep method utilized to solve the stated problem are studied. An algorithm for the numerical solution of the stated problem is proposed, a computer program is designed, and a computational experiment is carried out on a series of applied problems. The findings are of interest in the analysis of applied problems of multiphase continuum media transfer along network-like 3D carriers.

Keywords: initial-boundary value transfer problem, network (directed graph), continuous medium transfer, difference scheme, locally one-dimensional method

Component optimization of an evolving digital management environment in organizational systems

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1140

Ryndin N.A.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.013

The article deals with the formation of optimization models for component optimization of a digital management environment in organizational systems based on probabilistic assessments of component functional requirements fulfilment and estimation of the components implementation influence parameters on the achievement of established requirements. Methods and algorithms for calculating the parameters of digital environment components implementation influence on the achievement of established requirements are considered. As a principal method, it is proposed to use multi-alternative optimization and choosing the option of component integration into a single digital environment that provides the specified requirements for the functioning of a digitalized organizational system. Special attention is given to evaluating the functionality of digital environment components to determine the suitability of a component or a need to replace it in case of non-compliance with the specified requirements at the stage of its development. Boundary conditions for the transition from the stage of functioning to the stage of digital environment development are regarded in terms of fulfilling the established requirements for organizational system parameters and developing control actions: further operation of the component or its replacement; introduction of a new component to meet new system requirements; adjustment of component functionality under the conditions of the system unchanged structure.

Keywords: digital environment, probabilistic estimates, life cycle, resource allocation, component optimization

Safe distance determining algorithm in terms of the thrust force dependence on the aircraft speed during takeoff-run

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1139

Nguyen V. Uvaysov S.U. Florova I.A. Rychkova O.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.001

The importance of air communication between various points of the globe in the modern world is difficult to overestimate. Yet the employment of this means of transport is associated with high risks for passengers, crew, cargo and the aircraft itself due to the possibility of serious accidents at all phases of the flight, but especially during takeoff and landing. This article presents a physical and mathematical model of an aircraft takeoff-run. Its analysis helps to avoid accidents in the event of emergency situations. This model enables the creation of an electronic device for monitoring takeoff dynamic characteristics and warning the aircraft crew about arising inconsistencies. The article presents differential equations describing the dynamic characteristics of the aircraft during takeoff-run. Additionally, solutions of these equations are obtained, which explicitly determine the functional dependencies of the distance necessary for a safe takeoff on the time elapsed since the start of the takeoff-run. The influence of external factors, such as ambient air temperature, wind speed during takeoff and runway slope on the calculated characteristics is considered. As an example, the article also offers the results of an emergency takeoff modeling with the aid of modern software (flight simulator flightgear 2020.3, GeoGebra mathematical program). From the authors’ point of view, the materials of the article may be of practical value for developers of non-embedded on-board control devices, as well as for users of these devices.

Keywords: takeoff, takeoff-run, runway, gravity, friction force, lifting force, normal reaction force of the support, thrust force, drag force, satellite receiver

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the development of human capital in the region using machine learning algorithms

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1137

Kashirina I.L. Azarnova T.V. Bondarenko Y.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.004

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the formation and development of human capital through its negative effect on education and public health. This disease has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, caused long-term health problems and deprived many of them of access to quality education. In this regard, during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is of great importance to design modern and accurate methods for analyzing, modeling and predicting the dynamics of the spread of this disease, which enable to identify factors that significantly affect the spread of the infection. The article discusses the stages of constructing machine learning models for conducting a predicative analysis of the COVID-19 incidence, which makes it possible to study the dynamics of the spread of this virus at the regional level, identify the influence of various factors on the severity, the duration of the disease, and subsequently create timely scenarios for managing the human capital of the region in order to reduce the negative impact of the pandemic. To devise the methods, a large array of depersonalized data on the spread of COVID-19 in the Voronezh region, provided by the Voronezh Regional Clinical Consultative and Diagnostic Center, was used. The article presents the results of an exploratory analysis of the available data, highlights additional features that can be employed to build machine learning models and develops methods for interactive visualization and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics.

Keywords: human capital, COVID-19, machine learning, trend forecasting, exploratory data analysis

Means of optical and radio frequency identification in the technological process of automated control of mobile on-board equipment circulation

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1136

Styskin M.M. Stepanov P.V. Zheltov S.Y. Sokolov B.V. Ronzhin A.L.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.003

The relevance of developing multicomponent means of identifying mobile on-board equipment is due to the increasing requirements for the quality and routine maintenance speed of aircraft. This article analyzes the problems of existing methods for controlling mobile on-board equipment circulation of civil aviation aircraft. The tasks, solved by the equipment circulation control system in the course of loading and unloading mobile on-board kitchen equipment, its transportation, downtime in remote warehouses at destination airports, are formulated. The main problem, solved by the mobile on-board kitchen equipment circulation control system, is the identification of each equipment unit in a reliable manner. To address this issue, various options for automatic contactless identification of mobile equipment, based on RFID, QR-coding, Bluetooth technologies, are proposed. As a result, each unit of equipment receives its own unique digital identifier, which is stored and tracked throughout the entire life cycle in the enterprise information system. The architecture of the mobile equipment circulation control system is presented, including subsystems for generating visual tags, programming identification tags (RFID, BLE), registration, disposal, control of loading, unloading, stocktaking, search, and etc. The application of the mobile equipment circulation control system, which is a part of the technological process of aircraft service maintenance at an airport, is outlined. The advantages of the devised system for controlling the loading/unloading of on-board equipment are demonstrated.

Keywords: circulation control system, mobile equipment, identification tags, visual tags, QR code, RFID, bluetooth, BLE

The algorithm for pulse measurement using a human’s and fetus’s phonocardiogram without classifying heart sounds

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1135

Kosteley Y.V. Zhdanov D.S. Borovskoy I.G.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.018

The relevance of the research is due to the prospects of phonocardiogram employment for daily monitoring of a fetus’s and mother’s state by designing inexpensive portable devices. Currently, there are no software and hardware systems that completely solve this problem. In this regard, the article presents the algorithm for pulse measurement by means of a phonocardiogram for signal processing in the streaming mode. The algorithm feature is a human’s and fetus’s pulse measurement based on the heart sound segmentation without classifying them into the first and second heart sounds, as well as detecting them under the conditions of other physiological and mechanical sounds, absence of one of the heart sounds in the signal, and deviations in the segmented sound boundaries from the actual localization of the cardiovascular system. For assessing the credibility of the results, the pulse values, obtained by the developed algorithm and reference methods, were compared. The pulse values, calculated by two experts with the aid of a phonocardiogram, were used as a standard for comparison. The average relative deviation between the findings and the reference method results does not exceed 3 %. The article materials are of practical value for the design of a fetus and human state daily monitoring systems.

Keywords: phonocardiogram, cardiointervalogram, heart sound segmentation, heart rate, signal processing

Adaptive control of magnetotherapy by means of biotechnical feedback on the impedance of biologically active points in physiotherapy of ischemic patients

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1134

Miroshnikov A.V. Petrunina E.V. Pavlenko A.V. Protasova Z.O. Shekhine M.T. Shulga L.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.023

The article examines a biotechnical system of rehabilitation and treatment of ischemic patients. A generalized structural diagram of rehabilitation of patients with high ischemic risk by exposing them to magnetic fields with controlled biotropic parameters is presented. The scheme allows building a model of the living system functional state and implementing adaptive control of magnetotherapy through biotechnical feedback on surrogate markers. A biotechnical system of magnetotherapy for patients with coronary heart disease has been developed. Biotechnical feedback was introduced into the system, which enabled it to adapt the magnetotherapy program to the functional state of the patient and correct it during the therapeutic session. Adjusting the therapeutic magnetic field parameters made it possible to increase the therapeutic effect of the physiotherapeutic procedure, reduce the adaptation and negative reactions of the body to magnetotherapy, and plan magnetotherapy programs. To implement the feedback, which ensures the adaptation of the magnetic field biotropic parameters to the functional state of the patient, we used information about the impedance of biologically active points and ischemic risk classifiers, the descriptors of which were determined on the basis of this information. An algorithm for controlling the biotropic parameters of the magnetic field by means of the functional state multimodal classifiers of the patient and a fuzzy inference module, designed to correct the biotropic parameters of the magnetic field in the course of a magnetic therapy session, is given. In a clinical setting, it was shown that the application of adaptive magnetic therapy is an effective method of treating patients with angina pectoris II and III of functional classes (85% and 77%, respectively), which is 14% and 15% higher than the corresponding results in the control group.

Keywords: ischemic risk, adaptive magnetotherapy, biotechnical system, biologically active point, neural network, fuzzy control module, base of fuzzy decision rules, algorithm

Optimization of a supply chain digital thread in the practice of managing organizational systems

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1132

Mukha V.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.027

The article discusses an approach based on the use of methods for modeling, optimization and expert assessment in the development of a supply chain digital thread in the practice of managing organizational systems. It is shown that a digital thread needs to ensure, on the one hand, the movement of material flows within the supply chain and, on the other hand, the exchange of information flows during the interaction of the control center digital platforms and objects of the organizational system. The task is to make a managerial decision regarding the necessity to modernize the operating system of the logistics process digital control in comparison with the results of multivariate modeling and optimization of the digital thread structure. First of all, a model assessment of information exchange efficiency indicators is carried out in the case of basic structures of interaction between digital platforms of the control center and objects that form the supply chain: centralized and decentralized. In order to expand the expert evaluation possibilities of the new version of the logistics process digital management, simulation of the material flows movement processes and data exchange is undertaken to optimize the three-level cluster structure of the digital thread. All these stages of making a managerial decision are combined into a structural scheme for choosing an effective option for implementing a digital thread of supply chains.

Keywords: organizational system, management, logistics process, digital thread, optimization, simulation, expert assessment

Study of current chronograms, structure of dissociation, recombination and equilibrium regions in problems of non-stationary 1:1 electrolyte transfer in membrane systems using a mathematical model

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1131

Kovalenko A.V. Gudza V.A. Chubyr N.O. Khromykh A.A. Urtenov M.K.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.028

The joint research of the dissociation-recombination reaction and space charge along with their effect on the transfer of 1:1 electrolyte ions appears to be a relevant issue. The article is a theoretical study of the dissociation, recombination and equilibrium areas and the features of salt ion transfer in each of these areas using the method of mathematical modeling. In the article, for the first time, on the basis of a mathematical model of non-stationary transfer of 1:1 electrolyte, the main regularities of the influence of the dissociation and recombination non-catalytic reaction on the transfer of 1:1 salt ions and electroconvection are theoretically established. In particular, the chronograms of the current density with and without taking into account the dissociation/recombination reaction of water, the structure of the dissociation regions, recombination and equilibrium were examined, the dependences on the input parameters were determined: the initial concentration, the potential sweep rate. It has been shown that in the boundary layers of ion-exchange membranes, the dissociation reaction prevails over the recombination reaction due to the fact that in these regions the electric field strength takes such high values that the electric field breaks the water molecules and separates the Н+ and ОН- ions, preventing them from recombining. It has been demonstrated for the first time that in the middle part of the desalination channel, a region is formed where the recombination of H+ and OH- ions predominates. This reaction is local in nature, so all H+ and OH- ions cannot recombine at the same time. As a result, in the region of recombination, an excess of H+ ions emerges on the one side and OH- on the other side, in other words, an electric double layer is developed in the middle part of the desalination channel, and the recombination region is rather narrow. The obtained theoretical results and conclusions can be applied to analyze the operation of electrodialysis machine desalination channels.

Keywords: electrolyte, membrane, dissociation, recombination, electroconvection, desalination channel

Implementation of numerical methods for assessing the probabilistic-temporal characteristics of a set of operations in the form of a problem-oriented software package

2022. T.10. № 2. id 1130

Oleinikova S.A. Selishchev I.A. Nedikova T.N.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.37.2.012

The object of research in the article is a project represented by a set of sequential-parallel operations with a random duration. A feature of the project class under study is the dependence of the execution time of any operation on the executive assigned to it. The goal is to assess the probabilistic and temporal characteristics of the project, which include, first of all, the duration of service. Due to the stochastic nature of operation duration, this characteristic will be random. Based on this, it is required to estimate the mathematical expectation of the investigated random variable in the first instance. In addition, the variance of the random variable, its distribution law, and the ability to estimate the probability of project completion in a given timeframe (i.e., the probability of the investigated random variable falling within a given timeframe) pose an interest. To achieve this goal, the article presents a software package consisting of an application for assessing the parameters of individual operations, a simulation system for assessing the duration of the entire project and a database that stores information about the required entities. All components of the software package are implemented using the Java language; MySql was chosen as the DBMS. As a result, it became possible to evaluate the parameters of individual operations, transfer them to the simulation environment for conducting an experiment to assess the necessary characteristics of the duration of the entire project and save the obtained values in the database for their possible further use.

Keywords: probabilistic-temporal characteristics, sequential-parallel operations, numerical method, software package, simulation modeling

Information support in scientific paper preparation management on the basis of intelligent review analysis

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1128

Latypova V.A.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.005

Intelligent technologies are actively entering different fields of activity. These technologies are also beginning to be utilized at certain stages of scientific paper preparation management process to organize information support for peer reviewers and editors of the academic journals for the purpose of reducing their labour costs and accelerating the procedure of paper publication. However, tools, implementing intelligent technologies, are mostly used in major publishing houses due to the fact that their application requires strong computing resource consumption in their work. This entails the need for appropriate hardware and large financial expenditure. For that reason, the employment of intelligent technologies is nowadays limited for most of other academic journals. To deal with this problem, an approach to decision-making information support in scientific paper preparation management on the basis of intelligent review analysis is suggested in this article. The testing of the proposed measure to information support at the Aeterna Research and Publication Centre has proven its effectiveness by the example of paper preparation management in Academicheskaya publitsistika (Academic Publicism) and Innovatsionnaya nauka (Innovative Science) Journals.

Keywords: information support, scientific paper, paper preparation management, peer review, intelligent review analysis

Simulation modeling features of capacitive sensor measurement circuits

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1127

Mishukov S.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.017

The main universal and effective method of researching numerous technical systems and objects is the implementation of simulation modeling in special software, for example, SimInTech (Simulation In Technic), which is a unique software package that makes it possible to combine calculation projects and schemes with various mathematical, physical, electrical, hydraulic and other processes in real time. This feature of the SimInTech environment enables to simulate measuring circuits based on the original method of determining the capacitive sensor parameters, which consists in a two-stage measurement algorithm in steady-state and transient modes of the circuit under study. Using the example of the specified measuring circuit, the features of constructing its model by means of a built-in programming language, the development of custom blocks of a capacitive sensor, an operational amplifier, a sampling and storage device are shown. In addition, a study of the random component of the sensor parameter measure error, when the accuracy of voltage sampling changes, was carried out and the possibility of performing measurements with an error not exceeding 0.5% was confirmed. The materials of the article are of practical value for specialists in the field of control and measuring technology since the application of the SimInTech dynamic modeling environment for building models of measuring circuits will facilitate theoretical research relating to multi-element circuits and objects represented by them.

Keywords: capacitive sensor, measuring circuit, simulation modeling, multi-element circuit, submodel

A training device for the analysis of anomaly detection methods based on machine learning theory

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1122

Grekov M.M.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.019

Nowadays, the timely detection of new malicious attacks on computer networks appears to be a relevant issue. In this regard, it is necessary to develop anomaly detection methods that enable the identification of unknown attacks. The paper presents a model of a training device for analyzing anomaly detection methods in reliance on machine learning theory. A model has been developed for generating datasets with characteristics of real network traffic by means of a generative adversarial neural network. The generated dataset can be employed to train and test detection models while the sample emulates the features of a real network, which increases the efficiency of anomaly detection. The training device can also use publicly available datasets: NSL-KDD, CICIDS2017. Support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, logistic regression, decision trees, random forest, k-means are utilized as training methods, and a multilayer neural network, based on the PyTorch library, is implemented. The training device simplifies the process of analyzing machine learning methods, applied to obtain anomaly detection models. The developed software product facilitates not only training and testing with the aid of publicly available datasets, but also provides the ability to collect network traffic and supplements it with generated data with the characteristics of real traffic.

Keywords: anomaly detection systems, datasets, generative adversarial neural networks, machine learning, computer network security

Stochastic filtering in the space of expert opinions

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1121

Grechanyi S.A. Krivobokova S.E.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.022

Currently, there are many difficulties associated with the financial aspect that affects the security of the facility when assembling a set of technical security equipment. To solve the problems of the facility safety, and therefore the reliability of individual security devices, it is recommended to involve experts. At the same time, experts’ opinions may not always be infallible. In this study, it is proposed to carry out a stochastic analysis and filtering of the expert opinion space in order to identify a conditional trend (established opinion) of each expert. The main method of researching this issue is the analysis of conditional time series (testing the hypothesis of the trend absence by means of the median method in the sequence of expert assessments), which makes it possible to determine the validity of the method, as well as to ensure experts’ objectivity of assessments. The article presents a step-by-step operation algorithm for empirical data, calculates the average deviations from the trend line, considers two methods for testing the null hypothesis – the median method and Foster–Stewart method. The materials of the article can be applied in various areas of setting the average score since the algorithm for testing the null hypothesis is universal in nature.

Keywords: conditional short time series, stochastic filtering, least square method, regression equation, median method, foster–Stewart method, standard deviation

Model with latent parameters for step-by-step procedure for evaluating learning outcomes

2022. T.10. № 1. id 1118

Bratischenko V.V.

DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.36.1.015

The relevance of the research is due to the importance of studying learning outcomes to improve the quality of educational process. For this, a knowledge assessment model is proposed in the form of a task sequence. The probability of successful completion of the task depends on the latent parameters: the ability of the student and the difficulty of the task. The model is similar to the Partial Credit Model used in Item Response Theory to analyze test results. In reliance on the maximum likelihood method, a procedure has been developed for estimating parameters by numerical methods according to students' grades. The convergence of the estimation procedure has been substantiated. Adequacy verification of the model by the means of variance analysis, correlation analysis, Infit and Outfit criteria, based on the chi-square distribution, is put forward. To evaluate the usefulness of the model, it is suggested to utilize the coefficient of determination. Information on the application of the model for the analysis of students’ grade array in the academic group is given. Following on from the results of the analysis, the model passed the adequacy tests and made it possible to significantly clarify the characteristics of the learning outcomes and knowledge assessment procedures. To enhance the accuracy of modeling, it is recommended to employ grades of current academic performance. The practical value of the model lies in the identification of assessment procedures with characteristics that differ notably from the average for further meaningful analysis and upgrade.

Keywords: knowledge assessment model, latent parameters, maximum likelihood method, variance analysis, correlation analysis, infit statistics, outfit statistics, coefficient of determination