Optimization of the management of the development of the process of population medical examination based on predictive modeling of the rate of change in morbidity in the organizational system of regional health care

The article examines the possibility of increasing the efficiency of managing the development of the process of medical examination of the population of the region based on predictive modeling of the rate of change in morbidity. As a prerequisite for optimizing management predictive estimates serve decisions in the distribution of resource provision planned within the forecasting horizon by the managing center of the organizational system of regional healthcare. Based on long-term statistical data, the average annual rates of change in morbidity and volumes of medical examinations are calculated as estimates of additional resource provision. The initial data allow us to calculate the rates of change for a group of nosological units as a whole, for each nosological unit and for each territorial entity. The use of visual expert modeling allows us to estimate the degree of synchronization of changes in morbidity with the allocation of additional volumes of medical examination. The expediency of using the analysis of long-term medical and statistical information and predictive estimates for making management decisions within the organizational system of healthcare in the Voronezh Region is substantiated. Based on the analysis of retrospective data, a conclusion was made about the insufficient degree of synchronization of the rate of change in morbidity with the allocated resource without using an optimization approach. In addition, it is proposed to conduct a preliminary classification of the territorial entities of the Voronezh Region by the rate of change into three groups: low, medium, and high, taking into account the large number of territorial entities of the Voronezh Region. The main classes of problems of optimization of management decisions in the distribution of additional volumes of medical examinations within the planning horizon of the development of the organizational system are considered. For this purpose, prognostic estimates are transformed into coefficients of priority of use of the planned resource. To distribute the volumes of medical examinations between nosological units, they focus on optimization using expert choice. An optimization problem of resource distribution among territorial entities is formed, management decisions on the basis of which are determined using the algorithm of multi-alternative optimization.

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