О подходе к прогнозированию показателей социально-экономического развития региона на основе косвенных показателей
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Научный журнал Моделирование, оптимизация и информационные технологииThe scientific journal Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology
Online media
issn 2310-6018

On the approach to forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the region based on indirect indicators

idRusanov M.A. Abbazov V.R.   Baluev V.A.   Burlutsky V.V.   idMelnikov A.V.

UDC 004.8
DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.38.3.004

  • Abstract
  • List of references
  • About authors

Economic and social development requires constant modernization of the regional management system based on the system of key socio-economic indicators of the region's development and methods of their analysis and forecasting. The article proposes a comprehensive approach to forecasting based on the application of classical forecasting methods for existing time series of statistical indicators and by identifying and analyzing indirect semantically close indicators to a new indicator in the absence of the necessary time series for forecasting. The article provides a general methodology for obtaining a forecast and describes in detail the method for constructing a forecast estimate of the change dynamics in the estimated indicator as well as a description of the AutoML library with open source FEDOT, which was used to build forecasts. The issue of constructing and optimizing a combined forecast with the aid of automatic machine learning tools is considered. At the end of the article, the result of an experiment on predicting the indicators “Population of the subject of the Russian Federation” and “Life expectancy at birth” according to the proposed approaches and a comparison of the findings is presented. It can be concluded that the suggested approach to making a predictive assessment of the change dynamics in the estimated indicator by identifying indirect indicators can be applied to socio-economic indicators of the development of the region.

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Rusanov Mikhail Aleksandrovich

ORCID |

Department of Digital Technologies of Yugra State University
Yugorsky Research Institute of Information Technologies

Khanty-Mansiysk, Russian Federation

Abbazov Valeryan Rinatovich

Yugorsky Research Institute of Information Technologies

Khanty-Mansiysk, Russian Federation

Baluev Vladimir Aleksandrovich

Yugorsky Research Institute of Information Technologies

Khanty-Mansiysk, Russian Federation

Burlutsky Vladimir Vladimirovich

Yugoria Group of Insurance Companies

Khanty-Mansiysk, Russian Federation

Melnikov Andrej Vitalievich

ORCID |

Yugorsky Research Institute of Information Technologies

Khanty-Mansiysk, Russian Federation

Keywords: socio-economic indicators, forecasting, incompleteness, autoML, indicator of senior official activity effectiveness

For citation: Rusanov M.A. Abbazov V.R. Baluev V.A. Burlutsky V.V. Melnikov A.V. On the approach to forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the region based on indirect indicators. Modeling, Optimization and Information Technology. 2022;10(3). Available from: https://moitvivt.ru/ru/journal/pdf?id=1202 DOI: 10.26102/2310-6018/2022.38.3.004 .

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Full text in PDF

Received 08.06.2022

Revised 06.07.2022

Accepted 18.07.2022

Published 20.07.2022